Category: Technical Analysis

Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo usually just called ichimoku is a technical analysis method that builds on candlestick charting to improve the accuracy of forecast price moves. It was developed in the late 1930s by Goichi Hosoda, a Japanese journalist who used to be known as Ichimoku Sanjin, which can be translated as “what a man in the mountain sees”. He spent 30 years perfecting the technique before releasing his findings to the general public in the late 1960s.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo translates to one glance equilibrium chart or instant look at the balance chart and is sometimes referred to as “one glance cloud chart” based on the unique “clouds” that feature in ichimoku charting.

Ichimoku is a moving average-based trend identification system and because it contains more data points than standard candlestick charts, it provides a clearer picture of potential price action. The main difference between how moving averages are plotted in ichimoku as opposed to other methods is that ichimoku’s lines are constructed using the 50% point of the highs and lows as opposed to the candle’s closing price.

Fibonacci number

In mathematics, the Fibonacci numbers are the numbers in the following integer sequence, called the Fibonacci sequence, and characterized by the fact that every number after the first two is the sum of the two preceding ones:

1 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 5 , 8 , 13 , 21 , 34 , 55 , 89 , 144

In finance, Fibonacci retracement is a method of technical analysis for determining support and resistance levels. They are named after their use of the Fibonacci sequence. Fibonacci retracement is based on the idea that markets will retrace a predictable portion of a move, after which they will continue to move in the original direction.

Support and resistance

In technical analysis, support and resistance is a concept that the movement of the price of a security will tend to stop and reverse at certain predetermined price levels. These levels are denoted by multiple touches of price without a breakthrough of the level.

A support level is a level where the price tends to find support as it falls. This means that the price is more likely to “bounce” off this level rather than break through it. However, once the price has breached this level, by an amount exceeding some noise, it is likely to continue falling until meeting another support level.

A resistance level is the opposite of a support level. It is where the price tends to find resistance as it rises. Again, this means that the price is more likely to “bounce” off this level rather than break through it. However, once the price has breached this level, by an amount exceeding some noise, it is likely to continue rising until meeting another resistance level.

Trend following

Trend following is an investment strategy based on the technical analysis of market prices, rather than on the fundamental strengths of the companies. In financial markets, traders and investors using a trend following strategy believe that prices tend to move upwards or downwards over time. They try to take advantage of these market trends by observing the current direction and using this to decide whether to buy or sell.

There are a number of different techniques, calculations and time-frames that may be used to determine the general direction of the market to generate a trade signal (forex signals), these including the current market price calculation, moving averages and channel breakouts. Traders who employ this strategy do not aim to forecast or predict specific price levels; they simply jump on the trend and ride it. Due to the different techniques and time frames employed by trend followers to identify trends, trend followers as a group are not always strongly correlated to one another.

Price action

The concept of price action trading embodies the analysis of basic price movement as a methodology for financial speculation, as used by many retail traders and often institutionally where algorithmic trading is not employed. Since it ignores the fundamental factors of a security and looks primarily at the security’s price history — although sometimes it considers values derived from that price history — it is a form of technical analysis. What differentiates it from most forms of technical analysis is that its main focus is the relation of a security’s current price to its past prices as opposed to values derived from that price history. This past history includes swing highs and swing lows, trend lines, and support and resistance levels.

Elliott Waves

The Elliott wave principle is a form of technical analysis that finance traders use to analyze financial market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology, highs and lows in prices, and other collective factors. Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948), a professional accountant, discovered the underlying social principles and developed the analytical tools in the 1930s. He proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call “Elliott waves”, or simply “waves”. Elliott published his theory of market behavior in the book The Wave Principle in 1938, summarized it in a series of articles in Financial World magazine in 1939, and covered it most comprehensively in his final major work, Nature’s Laws: The Secret of the Universe in 1946. Elliott stated that “because man is subject to rhythmical procedure, calculations having to do with his activities can be projected far into the future with a justification and certainty heretofore unattainable.” The empirical validity of the Elliott Wave Principle remains the subject of debate.

The patterns link to form five and three-wave structures which themselves underlie self-similar wave structures of increasing size or higher degree. Note the lowermost of the three idealized cycles. In the first small five-wave sequence, waves 1, 3 and 5 are motive, while waves 2 and 4 are corrective. This signals that the movement of the wave one degree higher is upward. It also signals the start of the first small three-wave corrective sequence. After the initial five waves up and three waves down, the sequence begins again and the self-similar fractal geometry begins to unfold according to the five and three-wave structure which it underlies one degree higher. The completed motive pattern includes 89 waves, followed by a completed corrective pattern of 55 waves.

A correct Elliott wave count must observe three rules:

  • Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
  • Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5.
  • Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle formation.

Indicator

In technical analysis, a technical indicator is a mathematical calculation based on historic price, volume, or (in the case of futures contracts) open interest information that aims to forecast financial market direction. Technical indicators are fundamental part of technical analysis and are typically plotted as a chart pattern to try to predict the market trend. Indicators generally overlay on price chart data to indicate where the price is going, or whether the price is in an “overbought” condition or an “oversold” condition.

Many technical indicators have been developed and new variants continue to be developed by traders with the aim of getting better results. New Indicators are often backtested on historic price and volume data to see how effective they would have been to predict future events.

Definition of technical analysis

In finance, technical analysis is an analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Behavioral economics and quantitative analysis use many of the same tools of technical analysis, which, being an aspect of active management, stands in contradiction to much of modern portfolio theory. The efficacy of both technical and fundamental analysis is disputed by the efficient-market hypothesis which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable.